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Are fewer Idaho sheep dying, or are there just fewer sheep?

By Michael Cooper. Published , updated .

Yes, and not only because there are fewer sheep. The death rate fell too, from 101.9 per 1,000 in 1988 to 63.8 per 1,000 in 2025, a change of 37.4%.

Over the same years the January 1 inventory fell 27.5% and the count of deaths fell 54.5%.

Deaths and the flock since 1988

In 1988, Idaho lost 33,000 head out of a January 1 inventory of 324,000 head. By 2025, the most recent year NASS reports, deaths fell to 15,000 head, a change of 54.5%.

Over the same years the inventory fell to 235,000 head, a change of 27.5%. In percent, deaths moved by a wider margin than the flock did.

Idaho sheep and lamb deaths against the January 1 inventory, 1988 to 2025Idaho sheep and lamb deaths against the January 1 inventory, 1988 to 2025. 2 series. January 1 inventory: 324,000 in 1988, 235,000 in 2025.0100k200k300k400k20002020January 1inventoryDeaths inthe yearHeadIdaho sheep and lamb deaths against the January 1 inventory, 1988 to 2025Idaho sheep and lamb deaths against the January 1 inventory, 1988 to 2025. 2 series. January 1 inventory: 324,000 in 1988, 235,000 in 2025.0100k200k300k400k1990200020102020January 1inventoryDeaths in theyearHeadIdaho sheep and lamb deaths against the January 1 inventory, 1988 to 2025Idaho sheep and lamb deaths against the January 1 inventory, 1988 to 2025. 2 series. January 1 inventory: 324,000 in 1988, 235,000 in 2025.0100k200k300k400k1990200020102020January 1inventoryDeaths in theyearHead

Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Sheep and Lamb Death Loss surveys. Published .

Deaths and inventory by year (38 rows)
PeriodJanuary 1 inventory (head)Deaths in the year (head)
1988324,00033,000
1989287,00030,000
1990286,00029,000
1991272,00033,000
1992273,00029,000
1993265,00028,000
1994266,00030,000
1995270,00029,000
1996273,00028,000
1997285,00026,000
1998285,00024,000
1999265,00026,000
2000275,00025,000
2001275,00022,000
2002260,00023,000
2003260,00022,000
2004260,00022,000
2005270,00020,000
2006260,00019,000
2007250,00021,000
2008235,00016,000
2009210,00017,000
2010220,00017,000
2011235,00021,000
2012240,00021,000
2013235,00017,000
2014250,00016,000
2015260,00020,000
2016255,00018,000
2017250,00016,000
2018235,00016,000
2019220,00016,000
2020230,00015,500
2021230,00016,000
2022235,00015,000
2023235,00017,000
2024235,00015,500
2025235,00015,000

The death rate over the full span

The death rate, computed here as deaths per 1,000 head of the same year’s January 1 inventory, fell from 101.9 per 1,000 in 1988 to 63.8 per 1,000 in 2025, a change of 37.4%. Across every year NASS publishes both figures, it has run from 63.8 per 1,000 in 2022 to 121.3 per 1,000 in 1991.

Idaho sheep and lamb deaths per 1,000 head, 1988 to 2025Idaho sheep and lamb deaths per 1,000 head, 1988 to 2025. Deaths per 1,000 head: 101.9 in 1988, 63.8 in 2025.05010015020002020Deaths per1,000 headPer 1,000Idaho sheep and lamb deaths per 1,000 head, 1988 to 2025Idaho sheep and lamb deaths per 1,000 head, 1988 to 2025. Deaths per 1,000 head: 101.9 in 1988, 63.8 in 2025.0501001501990200020102020Deaths per1,000 headPer 1,000Idaho sheep and lamb deaths per 1,000 head, 1988 to 2025Idaho sheep and lamb deaths per 1,000 head, 1988 to 2025. Deaths per 1,000 head: 101.9 in 1988, 63.8 in 2025.0501001501990200020102020Deaths per 1,000headPer 1,000

Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Sheep and lamb deaths per 1,000 head (computed by Understand Idaho). Published .

The annual death and inventory counts, and the computed rate, are on Idaho sheep and lamb death loss.

What killed sheep in the newest survey

NASS does not survey the cause of sheep and lamb deaths every year. Idaho’s cause-of-death survey, funded by the state’s Animal Damage Control Board, has run only in 2016, 2018, 2023 and 2025. The 2025 survey counted 22,000 head in total losses, broken out below.

Head

  1. Coyotes6,200
  2. Unknown Causes5,600
  3. Weather Conditions2,100
  4. Other Causes1,800
  5. Other/Unknown Predators1,300
  6. Lambing Complications1,200
  7. Old Age800
  8. Dogs700
  9. Enterotoxaemia700
  10. Disease500
  11. Poison300
  12. On Back200
  13. Ravens200
  14. Bears100
  15. Eagles100
  16. Foxes100
  17. Mountain Lions100

Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Sheep and Lamb Death Loss surveys. Data period 2025. Published .

That survey total is higher than the 15,000 head the annual Quick Stats series counts for 2025, because the annual series counts only losses after docking while the cause survey also counts lambs lost before docking.

NASS classifies 5,600 head of the 2025 total, 25.5%, as Unknown Causes, and states that this category may include predator loss the survey could not confirm.

Wolves are not a separate category in 2025: NASS folds them into “Other/Unknown Predators” (1,300 head) along with bobcats. That is not the grouping the 2016, 2018 and 2023 surveys used, so a wolf-specific figure cannot be read for 2025 and the predator categories are not directly comparable across survey years.

What these figures count

USDA’s Quick Stats survey publishes Idaho’s sheep and lamb deaths and its January 1 inventory separately each year. The death rate above is deaths divided by that year’s inventory per 1,000 head, computed on this site rather than published directly by NASS, so it stays comparable across years whatever the flock’s size.

What the data does not say

NASS publishes counts, not reasons. Nothing in this dataset says whether the change in the rate reflects predator control, weather, herd management or something else. The survey records how many sheep died and, in 4 years, what NASS attributes those losses to, not why the rate changed between one survey year and the next.

NASS also rounds each cause to the nearest 100 head and does not force the causes to sum to its own published total, so a residual is not assigned its own category.

Data behind this post

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